Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Breaking - Herman Cain 'Reassessing' Campaign

Fox News is reporting that Herman Cain is conducting an 'assessment' of his political campaign for the GOP Presidential nomination in the wake of the claim that he was involved in a 13 year affair.

Cain was appearing to be weathering the accusations of sexual harassment that had been leveled against him - no new accusations had been brought forward, no new details beyond the he said / she said accusations and denials, and no further grandstanding by smear attorney Gloria Allred since she brought forth the former boyfriend of her client to 'substantiate' the accusation.

His poll numbers were not rebounding significantly, and his performance in the CNN / Heritage Foundation / AEI debate on foreign policy was uninspiring.  At RealClearPolitics, Cain remained in third place among the GOP Presidential Candidates with an average polling of 15.5%.

This latest accusation of 'inappropriate behavior' combined with the non-denial denial offered could erode the remaining support for Cain's candidacy.  If the candidate does decide to end his run for the nomination, the question is going to be on where Cain's supporters are going to move to?  Romney?  Gingrich?  Perry?

Cain was part of the 'Anybody but Romney' movement within the conservative wing of the GOP and the simple answer may be that the remaining Cain support may shift to Newt Gingrich...except that Gingrich's immigration stance has raised renewed questions as to his conservative bonafides.  Cain gained much of his support from Rick Perry's fall - could these voters move back to the Texas Governor?  I personally don't think so. 

Some think that this group, already comfortable in not supporting Newt Gingrich may move towards Mitt Romney - but that is asking them to abandon their 'Anybody but Romney' position.  I suspect that the bulk of Cain's supporters may just decide to sit on the sidelines until the Florida primary - where they will make their move / decision.  It was Cain's straw poll win in Florida that propelled his campaign into the top tier.

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