Thursday, January 12, 2012

Perception vs Reality - II

How in trouble is the Obama Reelection Campaign?

According to the RealClearPolitics average poll, the Republican candidate for President, has a 1% lead over President Obama. 

Rasmussen Reports is currently showing that President Obama leads over Mitt Romney, 44% to 41%.  Over the last several months, this poll has fluctuated from Obama being up by as much as 7% to Romney being up by 6%.

Yet, the President's approval rating remains challenged.  16% more Americans disapprove of the President's actions than approve of his actions.  But some of the latest trends offer the most promising information for the President since early 2011....24% Americans thinking that the country is moving in the right direction, and 48% still are blaming the financial crisis on the Bush Administration as opposed to 45% who blame the Obama Administration. 

(On a side note - here's a link to an article that explains how and who caused the economic crisis.  For some, it's not new news...and the perception being driven by the Administration supports the reelection meme.)

The President's campaign has unofficially stated that their goal is to raise $1 Billion to spend for the reelection.  Just as in 2008, they see campaign funds as critical to being able to define the message they want and support the election effort that they need to overcome the Republicans.

Reuters and the Associated Press are highlighting that the President and the Democrat National Committee raised $68 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.  They are touting this a sign that there is considerable excitement and support for reelecting the President. 

However, and in particular with Obama campaigns, there is far more behind the scenes than meets the eye...and these go beyond the non-stop campaigning that the President did in 2011, or the 73 fundraisers the President did in 2011 - far above the numbers done by his predecessors.

In one of the most recent fundraisers, the President promised -
“If you’re willing to work even harder in this election than you did in that last election, I promise you change will come.”
The change that was promised in 2008, still undelivered, will come if he's re-elected?  But I digress...
Back to campaign funds. 

Unreported in these stories was the fact that in the 2nd Quarter of 2011, the Obama campaign and DNC raised $86 million.  In the 3rd Quarter, the campaign and DNC raised $70 million.  This reflects a clear trend of declining enthusiasm for donors to donate to the campaign and the DNC for the 2012 election season.    But the decline isn't the entire picture either.  The funds raised by the campaign and the DNC are also less than the amounts raised by the Bush / Cheney campaign during the same period of 2003.

This is of such a concern that Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina is warning that victory is in danger of 'slipping through our fingers' if donors don't begin to pony up more cash.

With this concern towards a declining trend of enthusiasm towards the President's re-election, just what levels will the President and his campaign take to drive up enthusiasm?  We've seen some of these - with the decision to postpone until 2013 any decision on the Keystone XL pipeline as a gesture to the hard left environmentalists.  The decision to give the American people and the Constitution the finger by 'recess' appointing hard left advocates to the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau and the National Labor Relations Board appeals to the hard left base unhappy that the President hasn't acted more assertively.  The entire premise of the campaign strategy to run against a 'do-nothing' Congress is intended to appeal to those who are angered by the lack of progress towards 'change'.

These will continue in 2012.  I wonder though, will some other habits change?  Is the Obama campaign still not verifying credit card information used for campaign contributions like they did in 2007-2008?  This permitted the campaign to collect millions in illegal campaign contributions - those above the limits as defined by law in addition to millions in contributions from overseas

The mantra of the hard progressive left is that 'the ends justifies the means'.  If the Obama campaign starts to believe that it is losing - we can expect that it - and it's helpers in the mainstream media - will pull out all stops - including illegal ones - to try to gain a victory in November.

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