Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Grim Forecast for November 2012 - If You Are President Obama

In today's Quick Hit post, one of the items I mentioned was the release by Gallup of their annual state by state presidential approval numbers - and that the President was only in the majority of approval (over 50%) in just 10 states plus the District of Columbia.

From this information, the Washington Examiner has taken a look at this with the electoral map for November's election.  They worked from the basis that if President Obama only carries the states where he has a net positive approval rating in 2011 (% Approve - % Disapprove = Positive number), he will lose the Presidential election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215 electoral votes.

This could be even worse if Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan are in play this fall.  Two of the three (WI and MI) trended Republican in 2010 - and in Wisconsin in particular, the efforts by Governor Scott Walker have successfully addressed the fiscal challenges he inherited.  Illinois is one (along with NY and CA) of the most fiscally troubled states - but while there should be a Republican backlash there, the progressive stronghold of Chicago will likely decide the state - just as how the SF Bay Area and Los Angeles metro determine California.

I think it is not unwise to consider Wisconsin or Michigan in play.  New Jersey could also be in play given the success and approval ratings that Governor Chris Christie is having as he works to repair the fiscal damage.  That's 26 to 40 electoral votes that could move from Obama's column to the Republican nominee. 

Rasmussen also released data today that provides another grim forecast for President Obama and the Democrat Party.  Voters who define themselves as Democrats is now at an all time low of 32.5% of the US electorate.  Those who define themselves as Republicans now represent 35.9% of the electorate.

Of course, the fact that Republicans now outnumber Democrats is something to keep in mind when you look at polls that consistently oversample Democrats by between 8% and 10% - or when the mainstream media starts to talk about the Republican lack of enthusiasm in this year's election.

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