Friday, October 12, 2012

Quick Hits - October 9, 2012

Six days after the first Presidential debate of the 2012 election cycle, the effects of that debate continue to resonate.  In a typical example of the hubris and narcissism of Barack Obama, we're learning today, courtesy of a report in the UK's Daily Mail, that Barack Obama was convinced he had won the debate last Wednesday evening.
When President Barack Obama stepped off the stage in Denver last week the 60 million Americans watching his debate against Mitt Romney already knew it had been a disaster for him.

But what nobody knew, until now, was that Obama believed he had actually won. In an extraordinary insight into the events leading up to the 90 minute showdown which changed the face of the election, a Democrat close to the Obama campaign today reveals that the President also did not take his debate preparation seriously, ignored the advice of senior aides and ignored one-liners that had been prepared to wound Romney.

I've noted that one of the aspects of this debate which seemed to blindside the President is that he has rarely ever been really challenged on his positions, agenda, and record in a forum where he cannot just dismiss it.  In the debate, he has to stay there.  He can't just respond, 'I won'.  But to go through 90 minutes of that, with all of the bad body language, the looking down, the dismissive attitude towards the Governor, and still believe he won, only reinforces the hubris, arrogance, narcissism, and haughty self-absorption the President has towards those who he firmly believes are inferior to him in every way.

This contempt towards those who do not place him on the pedestal that he believes he deserves is becoming more apparent with the undecided / independent voter who are going to be the ones who decide this election.  More polls are being released with their entire samples being taken in the aftermath of the debate, and they are showing a clear swing in momentum and direction from President Obama - particularly in the independents.

Two states that I have called swing states / battleground states in my looks at the state of the election, now have polls that are confirming this as Romney closes to within the margin of error in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.  A Rasmussen swing state tracking poll has Romney leading Obama by 3 points, 49 to 46.  Pollster ARG, looking at the battleground state of Ohio, is now showing Mitt Romney leading in the state by 1 point - and that poll has a D+9 sample!!

National Review's Jim Geraghty writes in his 'Morning Jolt' today about one of my common observations - the attention that needs to be given towards not only the race and gender sampling in polls, but also on the importance around party identification which is critical in modeling a real apples vs. apples look at the November 6th election.

Geraghty does this in reference to the Pew Poll which not only was one of the first to highlight the post-debate Romney surge, but apparently was one of the main motivators to drive the insufferable and whiney Andrew Sullivan into the depths of utter panic over the apparent collapse of the Obama 'magic'.

He (Geraghty, not Sully) notes in his 'Jolt' that major elements of the corrupt and biased mainstream media are having fits over the Pew poll because it is based on a R+2 model - just slightly above that of 2010 - while they had not a word of concern touting polls highlighting Obama's dominance based on D+8 to D+13 or larger samples that go well beyond modeling 2008's turnout.

This is about all they can do towards the very grim news from that Pew Poll which has Mitt Romney making substantial gains in ALL major demographics (including women) as he erases an 8 point deficit from the last pre-debate Pew poll and now has a 4 point national lead among likely voters.

Newsweek / Daily Beast finally has run their story on the Government Accountability Institute study into the Obama campaign's efforts to facilitate illegal contributions from foreign campaign donors.  The article also highlights that there are some GOP candidates who also are doing some of the same steps (not requiring CVV verifications on credit card donations) but that there are far more Democrats who are taking these steps than Republicans.

The Obama campaign wasted little time to dismiss the GAI study as being 'partisan' - terming one of the authors, Peter Schweizer, a conservative even though Schweizer last year released a study attacking several prominent Republican members of Congress for questionable 'insider trading' based on confidential information.  They also released a statement that tries to diminish the claims of the study.  Among these are claims that while they do not use CVV verification, they claim to use address verification and require photocopies of US passports for accepting donations made from addresses outside of the US.

Unfortunately, the dimbulbs and sycophants in the mainstream media who are invested in Barack Obama's reelection are accepting this asinine spin at face value - refusing to even ask why the Obama campaign requires the use of CVV to prevent fraud if someone purchases a $15 campaign coffee mug or $40 campaign sweatshirt but doesn't do so to collect a $150 campaign contribution.  If this best practice eCommerce fraud prevention step is so important when it comes to merchandise the campaign is selling, why isn't it important when taking campaign donations - unless one does want / need to accept illegal donations and have a way to create deniability around the knowledge that those contributions are illegal?

In the wake of last week's debate, here is the most watched and talked about advertisement from the Obama campaign that came from debate....

Big Bird is now the big story for the Obama campaign.

Who are they kidding?  Of all of the issues we are facing - that Mitt Romney wants to, in the world of $1 trillion plus annual deficits and $16 trillion in national debt, stop sending half a billion dollars of taxpayer subsidy to an entity that can raise the funds on their own through charitable donations or marketing their licensed products is the biggest problem we are facing?

The above graphic from the RNC says it all about the disturbing priorities of the Obama campaign to deflect from it's dismal record.

This leads me towards the last two items of focus for today's QH report.

First, we have some red meat from CNBC's Rick Santelli who is slamming the 'surprise' data within the September jobs report that was released last Friday - by connecting the dots and asking the key questions about last week's .3 point drop in the 'official' unemployment rate...

The key takeaway is this line...
"the current trend of these [jobs] numbers is so different from the current trend of any other numbers. If you were looking for conspiracies (and I'm not), you only need to change a certain number."
Need a picture?  Here's a chart that explains it all - the Federal Revenue, Spending, and Net Surplus / Deficit as a percentage of GDP over the last 111 years...

The last image I want to share comes from an article on ZeroHedge - the financial blog that provides excellent information and analysis on the financial side of politics and markets.  This one puts into perspective the actions of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Ben Bernanke - and the failure that just printing money creates in the three dives into QE...

Click on the image to get a larger view...

If it is not clear or apparent to you by now, when faced with the economic conditions resulting from the housing bubble burst and the recession of 2008, those in charge chose, for ideological purposes, the wrong path for us to take in order to generate a vibrant and robust economic recovery out of that hole.

Today in History

1936 - The Hoover Dam begins generating and transmitting electricity 266 miles to the city of Los Angeles.

1940 - During an overnight raid by the German Luftwaffe on London, St. Paul's Cathedral is struck by a German bomb which penetrates the dome and destroys the High Alter inside the Cathedral.  This was one of the few times the 17th century Cathedral was damaged during the Blitz - or subsequent German attacks on the British capital.

1963 - A landslide in the Vaiont Gorge in Northern Italy launches a wave of water that overwhelms the Diga del Vajont dam.  The failure of the dam releases a wave of water that devastated the village of Longarone, killing over 2,000.

1967 - Communist revolutionary Che Guevara is executed by the Bolivian Army a day after being captured while trying to launch a communist revolution in Bolivia.  The Argentinian born Guevara was a key partner with Fidel Castro in the Cuban Revolution - and became Castro's enforcer until leaving Cuba in 1965.

1970 - The Khmer Republic is proclaimed in Cambodia as the communist Khmer Rouge begin their effort to seize control of Cambodia.  They would succeed in April 1975 and embark on a course of genocide that would kill one third of the country's population.

1974 - German businessman, Oskar Schindler, who saved at least 1,200 Jews during the Second World War from death in Nazi concentration camps, dies at the age of 66.  His efforts would be chronicled in the superb film, 'Schindler's List'.

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